Operationalizing Ecosystem and Habitat Indicators to Support Climate-Ready Fisheries Management in the Mid-Atlantic

class: right, bottom, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# Operationalizing Ecosystem and Habitat Indicators to Support Climate-Ready Fisheries Management in the Mid-Atlantic
]
.subtitle[
## Management Decision Types November 2025 
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas, Hydra Scientific LLC Gavin Fay, UMass Dartmouth Kelsey Roberts, UMass Dartmouth Sophie Wulfing, UMass Dartmouth
]

---

class: top, left

background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Ecov_1_North_BT.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: 95% 70%

# Mid Atlantic current use of ecosystem information

.pull-left-60[

## Stock assessments
Science decisions: no change to Council process

## ABC setting
SSC decision: routine, tactical

## EAFM process
Council decision: occasional, strategic

## Next:
Identify more Council decisions where indicators will help

.table[
Right: Bottom temperature time series covariate on recruitment in the 2024 operational black sea bass assessment
]

]

.pull-right-40[
.footnote[
Image courtesy Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC
]
]

???
*  Stock assessments (ESPs-->assessment structure; ecosystem covariates-->OFL projections)

*  ABC setting (data quality, model performance, and ecosystem information-->OFL CV-->ABC)

*  EAFM risk assessment (ecosystem information-->prioritize scoping and MSE)

In development, research coordinated with SSC

*  Ecosystem overfishing thresholds

Focus on the risk assessment and its operational use, process to bring new science in

---

## Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs) in Assessments, and MAFMC ABC process

.pull-left[
![:img Pathways for scientific advice from the northeast ESP process, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ESPdecisionsupporttable.png)

![:img Bluefish ESP conceptual model, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/bluefishconceptualmodel.png)

.footnote[
Images courtesy Abigail Tyrell, NEFSC
]
]

.pull-right[
### ABC proportion of OFL given OFL CV

SSC uses Data, Assessment, and Ecosystem criteria for OFL CV

.footnote[
See [MAFMC ABC control rule](http://www.mafmc.org/s/MAFMC-ABC-Control-Rule-White-Paper.pdf), [2020 MAFMC risk policy](https://www.mafmc.org/s/b_Implications-of-MAFMC-Risk-Policy-for-Multi.pdf), and [updated OFL CV criteria](https://www.mafmc.org/s/Final-OFL-CV-guidance-document_06_24.pdf)
]

]

---
## MAFMC Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management

.pull-left[
* 2016 Ecosystem Approach to Fishery Management (EAFM) [Policy Guidance document](
http://www.mafmc.org/s/EAFM-Doc-Revised-2019-02-08.pdf)

.center[
![:img EAFM Policy Guidance Doc Word Cloud, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMC_EAFMwordcloud.png)
]

]

.pull-right[
* Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework:
.center[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 100%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]

]
???
The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop on slide 2. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

<a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
<a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))
<a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
<a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract))
<a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054))
<a name=cite-gaichas_framework_2016></a>([Gaichas et al., 2016](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full))

---
## Commercial Fishery Resilience (3) -- Fleet Diversity

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk to
maintaining equity in access to fishery resources.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend in diversity measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

This element was ranked low risk based on two indicators of fleet diversity. The Mid-Atlantic fleet count indicator has a significant 21 year downward trend, so the element is now ranked moderate-high risk.  
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20251104_Decisions_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commercial-div-1.png" alt="Commercial fleet count and revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic." width="576" />

]

## Risk element: ComDiv

---
## Offshore Habitat (new)

This element will be applied at the species level, and evaluates risk of not achieving
OY due to changes in offshore habitat quality and quantity.

.pull-left-70[
*Potential criteria--species specific*
.table[
<table class="table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Black Sea Bass </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Golden Tilefish </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> No indicators suggest negative impact to OY </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> No indicators suggest negative impact to OY </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> No indicators suggest negative impact to OY </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Either distribution indicators or natural mortality indicators suggest negative impact to OY but climate indicators suggest no impact. </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Indicators suggest increase in overwinter mixing but no change or increase in overwinter survival </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Physical oceanography indicators suggest negativeimpacts to OY but Habitat condition indicators suggest no impact or positive impact </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Climate indicators suggest negative impacts to OY or Both distribution and natural mortality indicators suggest negative impacts to OY. </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Indicators suggest decrease in overwinter survival but no change or decrease in overwinter mixing </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Habitat condition indicators suggest negative impacts to OY but Physical oceanography indicators suggest no impact or positive impact </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Distribution, climate, and natural mortality indicators all suggest negative impacts to OY. </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Overwinter survival decreasing, overwinter mixing increasing </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Both Physical oceanography and Habitat condition indicators suggest negative impact to OY </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.pull-right-30[
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OffHab </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

]

???
The EOP Committee and AP elected to tailor offshore habitat indicators for each managed species, using Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profile (ESP) information as a starting point. Risk indicators will be developed as ESP information becomes available.

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2025 Update with new elements

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 8px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PreyA </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PredP </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OffHab </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
] 
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Interact </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OtherUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
]
]

---
.pull-left[

<div id="htmlwidget-9c698d6b0736a1c1d687" style="width:100%;height:710px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-9c698d6b0736a1c1d687">{"x":{"url":"20251104_Decisions_Gaichas_files/figure-html//widgets/widget_sfconceptmod.html","options":{"xdomain":"*","allowfullscreen":false,"lazyload":false}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

]

.pull-right[
## How has MAFMC used the risk assessment?

* Risk based prioritization: the Council selected summer flounder for conceptual modeling

* Council completed management strategy evaluation (MSE) addressing [recreational fishery discards](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse) based on conceptual modeling

* Stakeholder driven MSE coupled population and recreational demand models

![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/keepOneNoOFkey.png)

* Results: potential improvement in angler welfare with low risk to stock status, multispecies recreational demand model sets specifications
]
???
In this interactive circular graph visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of [this page](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html). Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship--most links are one direction).For example, hovering over the element "Total Landings" in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

---
class: center, middle

.center[
# Key points for our discussion

This project is thinking broadly about Council management decisions, filtering those to priority management decisions that you choose in this workshop, then developing and testing indicators that could support them.

Indicators developed and tested will be for demonstration only.

This project will not change any management decisions.

Our goal is to provide examples and identify pathways for the Council to consider integrating the information.

]

---
class: top, left

# Management objectives aligned with example decisions

.pull-left-40[
### National Standards Objectives
1.  Achieve OY while preventing overfishing
1.  Best available science basis
1.  Unit stock management
1.  Fair equitable allocations
1.  Efficient use of resource
1.  Consider variation and contingency
1.  Minimize cost and duplication
1.  Consider communities and avoid adverse impacts
1.  Minimize bycatch and mortality
1.  Safety at sea

]

.pull-right-60[
### Potential Decisions
1.  Catch limits, effort controls, size and gear restrictions, bycatch reduction, habitat protection
1.  Data collection, inclusion, analysis, maintenance
1.  Define spatial management unit
1.  Define user groups and allocation basis
1.  Bycatch reduction, increased retention/utilization
1.  Risk policy, uncertainty buffers, adaptive inseason management, habitat protection
1.  Licensing and permitting, Reporting requirements, Limited access
1.  Management outcomes across multiple scales
1.  Fishing gear restrictions, open/closed seasons or areas 
1.  Open/closed seasons, Open/closed areas, Limited access

]

---
# Management objectives aligned with example decisions

## A toy example

.pull-left[
**Objective:** I want to see the Aurora Borealis from my backyard.

**Context:** I live on Cape Cod in Massachusetts and this is an unusual event here. The best views are when I am asleep (10 pm - 2 am).

**Decision:** Should I wake up and get out of bed to go outside and look at the sky?

**Option:** Stay up every night between 10 pm and 2 am and look the whole time.

**Likely outcome:** Every day my sleep is interrupted and I never see the Aurora.
]

.pull-right[
![Bourne Bridge photo Nov 11 2025](https://github.com/sgaichas/HSpresentations/raw/main/docs/images/FB_BourneAurora.jpg)
Bourne Bridge, Cape Cod, MA, 11 November 2025
]

---
.pull-left[
# Information needs

## A toy example with indicators

**Decision, framed around a SMART objective:**

When (date and time) should I wake up and get out of bed to go outside and look at the sky to have the best chance of seeing the Aurora in my backyard?

**Risk policy:** What probability of seeing the Aurora makes it worth waking up and getting out of bed?

**Potential supporting information (issues):** 
*  Friends' photos posted on social media (lagging indicator for infrequent social media users or people who sleep--but this could work for night owls who are always plugged in)
*  [Newspaper articles](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/science/space/northern-lights-photos-geomagnetic-storm.html) (lagging indicator, imprecise for my location)

]

.pull-right[
*  [NOAA Space Predictions](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental) (forecast! enough?)  
.center[
![:img NOAA forecast, 70%](https://github.com/sgaichas/HSpresentations/raw/main/docs/images/NOAAspaceforecast.png)
]  
*  Other things I need to know ([via AuroraReach](https://aurorareach.com/guide))
![Factors affecting Aurora view](https://github.com/sgaichas/HSpresentations/raw/main/docs/images/AuroraForecastFactors.png)
]

---
# Objective, Decision, and Information Needs Aligned

*  [AuroraReach Indicator Dashboard](https://aurorareach.com/map#google_vignette) (multi-indicator forecast for my location with notification threshold)
*  Validation: does it work?

.pull-left[
![Bourne Predition AuroraReach](https://github.com/sgaichas/HSpresentations/raw/main/docs/images/AuroraForecastBourneNov112025.png)
[AuroraReach prediction for Bourne, MA](https://aurorareach.com/sightings/2025/11/11/6a3e4f1662a14ebca7ac1555defc67d8)
]

.pull-right[
![Bourne Bridge photo Nov 11 2025](https://github.com/sgaichas/HSpresentations/raw/main/docs/images/FB_BourneAurora.jpg) 
Bourne Bridge, Cape Cod, MA, 11 November 2025
]

---
# Initial list of management decisions

## What information would be helpful, by decision? Examples

**Catch limits:** environmentally driven changes in productivity and availability

**Allocation:** changes in distribution, spatial changes in productivity and availability,  community vulnerability

**Efficient use:** changes in distribution of fish and fisheries, spatial and seasonal changes in productivity and availability

**Habitat protection:** habitat vulnerability

...

---
.pull-left[
# Discussion

*  Ecosystem information is being used operationally to support decisions in multiple processes

+  Assessment, ABC setting, EAFM
    +  Risk assessment indicators align information with objectives
    +  Potential to use indicators in more decisions

*  Have we listed all the management decisions?

+  What is missing?
    +  What needs more explanation?
    
*  What are the highest priority management decisions for considering ecosystem information?

]

.pull-right[
# Mid Atlantic Risks 2025

Declining seafood production

Historically low revenue

Declining range of recreational opportunities

Most community level revenue has high climate vulnerability

]

.footnote[
Slides available at https://sgaichas.github.io/HSpresentations 
Contact: <sgaichas@hydrascientificllc.com>
]

???