Climate and Fisheries Initiative

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# Climate and Fisheries Initiative
## Management Applications
### Sarah Gaichas <br /> Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment <br /> Northeast Fisheries Science Center

---

class: top, left

background-image: url("EDAB_images/ClimateFisheriesCover.png")
background-size: 550px
background-position: right

# Management needs

- Real world examples

- Immediately useful

+ Inseason management
    
    + Quota specification
    
    + Management strategy evaluation
    
    + Ecosystem based management

???

---
## Inseason forecasts: *Illex* squid fishery

.pull-left[
.center[
![ROFFS image of warm core ring Apri 2019](EDAB_images/IllexHabitatApril2019.jpg)
]
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img proposed use of seasonal forecast in managment for coastal pelagic by Tommasi et al 2017, 60%](EDAB_images/SSTforecastTommasi.png)
]
]

.footnote[

Manderson, J. 2020. Summary report Northern shortfin squid (*Illex illecebrosus*) population ecology and the fishery Summit, November 25-26, 2019 Wakefield, Rhode Island, available [here](https://www.dropbox.com/s/k3x0v53kyhaoj2a/DraftSummary_NorthernShortfinSquidPopulationEcologyAndTheFisherySummit_03242020.pdf?dl=0).

Tommasi, D., Stock, C.A., Pegion, K., Vecchi, G.A., Methot, R.D., Alexander, M.A., and Checkley, D.M. 2017. Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction. Ecological Applications 27(2): 378–388. doi:10.1002/eap.1458.
]

???

---
## 1-3 year forecasts: yellowtail flounder climate-informed assessment

.pull-left[
![:img Mean near‐bottom temperatures for July in the Middle Atlantic Bight and southern Gulf of Maine (the data set and processing are described in section 3). Temperature time series station locations (circles); boundaries between four subregions of the MAB (separated by dashed lines): the southern flank of Georges Bank, the New England Shelf, the New York Bight, and the Southern Middle Atlantic Bight; and the 50, 75, 100, and 1000 m isobaths (thin black lines) are shown. Inset shows entire region of compiled temperature profiles with the region encompassing the Cold Pool highlighted in red.](EDAB_images/jgrc22105-fig-0001-m.jpg)

]

.pull-right[
![:img WHAM model estimate of yellowtail flounder recruitment with no cold pool index, 50%](EDAB_images/SSB_Rec_m3.png)![:img now with CPI, 50%](EDAB_images/SSB_Rec_m4.png)

.contrib[
https://timjmiller.github.io/wham/articles/ex2_CPI_recruitment_SNEMA_yellowtail.html
]
]

.footnote[
Lentz, S.J. 2017. Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122(2): 941–954. doi:10.1002/2016JC012201.

Miller, T.J., Hare, J.A., and Alade, L.A. 2016. A state-space approach to incorporating environmental effects on recruitment in an age-structured assessment model with an application to southern New England yellowtail flounder. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 73(8): 1261–1270. doi:10.1139/cjfas-2015-0339.

]

???
---
## 1-3 year forecasts: yellowtail flounder climate-informed assessment

.pull-left[
![:img Comparisons of across-shelf temperature and salinity profiles between glider observation one particular autonomous underwater glider vehicles mission during 14–29 June 2006 and the correspondent model interpolated result. a-trajectory of the glider mission; Right four panels: Hovmöller diagrams of b-Glider Temperature c-Model Temperature d- Glider Salinity and e-Model Salinity profiles with depth in the y axis and time in the x axis, 100%](EDAB_images/ROMScp1.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img Same as Figure B1 but during 18–29 July 2007, with a zigzag trajectory of glider mission, starting from nearshore region off Rhode Island traveling across-shelf to the shelf-break region and then traveling down-shelf and shoreward to the 60 m isobath region south off Long Island Sound and finally seaward to the shelf break, 100%](EDAB_images/ROMScp2.png)

]
.footnote[
Chen, Z., Curchitser, E., Chant, R., and Kang, D. 2018. Seasonal Variability of the Cold Pool Over the Mid-Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123(11): 8203–8226. doi:10.1029/2018JC014148.
]

---
## Forecasts and projections: management strategy evaluation

.center[
![:img COCA groundfish project overview from Lisa Kerr](EDAB_images/COCAgfishMSE2.png)
]

.footnote[
Lisa A. Kerr, Sam Truesdell, Gavin Fay, Jonathan Cummings, Ashley Weston, Steven X. Cadrin, Sarah Gaichas, Min-Yang Lee, Anna Birkenbach, Andrew Pershing. Evaluating the Performance of Northeast Groundfish Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate (funded by NOAA COCA:NA17OAR4310272, 7/1/17-6/30/20)
]
---
## Forecasts and projections: ecosystem based fishery management

.pull-left[
.center[
![:img relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives, 100%](EDAB_images/nes-components-abstracted.png)
]
Bering Sea FEP Action Module 1: Evaluate short- and long-term effects of climate change on fish and fisheries, and develop management considerations
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img Bering Sea Fishery Ecosystem Plan cover, 80%](EDAB_images/BeringFEPcover.png)
]
]

???
Objectives: (1) coordinate to synthesize results of various ongoing and completed climate change research projects; (2) evaluate the scope of impacts on priority species identified in initial studies; and (3) strategically revaluate management strategies every 5-7 years; (4) include synthesis to evaluate climate-resilient management tools. The climate change Action Module team will work with the Council to iteratively identify and assess the performance of potential short-term, medium and long-term management actions for climate adaptation (i.e., derive alternative strategies for MSEs).
---
## Ecosystem status--improve with forecasts

.pull-left[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets, 80%](EDAB_images/NEFMC-SOE-2-pager.png)
]
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic, 80%](EDAB_images/NEFMC-SOE-2-pager2.png)
]
]

---
class: inverse, bottom
background-image: url("EDAB_images/IMG_2809.jpg")
background-size: cover

.pull-left[Slides: https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/]
.pull-right[Contact:  <sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov>]